Tidal Flooding Compounded with Extreme Temperatures in Tampa Bay

Description

High tide flooding (HTF), occurs when routine astronomical tides exceed local topographic thresholds, causing minor but disruptive inundation. While individual HTF events are minor, their chronic repetition can cumulatively impact communities that may, in some locations, rival the total impact of infrequent but severe storms. Sea level rise (SLR) will further increase HTF frequency and extent. Compounded with flooding, Tampa Bay is also exposed to other natural hazards, including extreme temperatures. Zhou et al. identified extreme sea levels and heatwaves as a growing global compound threat to coastal communities, but the study’s coarse resolution overlooked local dynamics and frequent sub-extreme tidal events. The present study addresses that gap using 30 years (1996-2025) of high-resolution, 6-minute NOAA tide gauge data, a 5-meter DEM, and a flooding model to simulate HTF events in Tampa Bay. Unlike traditional "bathtub" models, the model accounts for spatially varying water levels from 4 tide gauges, capturing regional topography and water level gradients. Flood maps were compared with satellite-derived temperature data and Social Vulnerability Index (SOVI) data to identify communities most vulnerable to compounding flood-heat hazards. We identified an average of 3 HTF events per year with areas surrounding Port Manatee and St. Petersburg at greatest risk. Results also highlight the importance of high-resolution water level data; flood day counts are three times higher using 6-minute data versus hourly records. Under NOAA SLR scenarios, HTF is projected to increase exponentially.

Institutions

• University of South Florida

  Florida, Tampa
• University of Florida

  Florida, Gainesville
• University of South Florida St. Petersburg

  Florida, St. Petersburg

Categories

Funders

• National Science Foundation (NSF)

  Grant ID: OCE-2244285

Licence